Sinking Nations
Entire countries are negotiating their own survival.
For atoll nations like Tuvalu, Kiribati and the Marshall Islands, sea-level rise is an existential threat. Much of their land sits barely a metre or two above the sea. Saltwater contaminates drinking water and crops long before islands fully flood.
Average elevation
~2 m
above sea level (Tuvalu)
~4 mm/yr
Sea-level rise rate
faster than global mean locally
~700k
Population at risk
across Pacific atoll states
~0.03%
Emissions share
of global total
uncertain
Land above water by 2100
depends on emissions path
Relative sea level (Funafuti)
mm vs. 1993What's happening
- ▸King tides now flood homes and roads that were once safe.
- ▸Freshwater lenses turn brackish, threatening food and water security.
- ▸Cultural heritage tied to specific land and ancestors is at risk of being lost.
What helps
- Deep, fast global emissions cuts are the only true protection.
- Reclamation, raised islands and reef restoration buy time.
- Legal recognition of statehood and dignified migration pathways.
How it unfolded
- 2013
A Kiribati man’s "climate refugee" asylum bid reaches New Zealand’s courts.
- 2014
Kiribati buys land in Fiji as a contingency.
- 2021
Tuvalu’s minister addresses COP26 standing knee-deep in the sea.
- 2023
Australia offers Tuvaluans a climate-migration pathway.
- 2024
Tuvalu builds a "digital nation" to preserve statehood.
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