The Amazon Tipping Point
The world’s largest rainforest could become a savanna.
The Amazon stores around 150-200 billion tonnes of carbon and generates much of its own rainfall. Deforestation and drought are pushing it toward a tipping point where large areas could dry out and die back - flipping from a carbon sink to a carbon source.
Forest already lost
~17%
of the original Amazon
20-25%
Tipping-point estimate
deforestation threshold
~150-200 Gt
Carbon stored
in biomass and soils
up to 50%
Rainfall recycled
generated by the forest itself
10%+
Species
of all known life on Earth
Annual deforestation (Brazilian Amazon)
thousand km²What's happening
- ▸Drier forest burns more easily, releasing stored carbon and choking cities in smoke.
- ▸Indigenous guardians protect the best-preserved forest, often at great personal risk.
- ▸Loss of Amazon rainfall could disrupt agriculture across South America.
What helps
- Ending illegal deforestation and rewarding forest protection.
- Securing Indigenous land rights - the strongest barrier to clearance.
- Restoring degraded land and shifting away from forest-driving commodities.
How it unfolded
- 2004
Brazil’s deforestation peaks, then falls sharply for a decade.
- 2019
Record fires draw global alarm.
- 2021
Studies find parts of the Amazon now emit more carbon than they absorb.
- 2023
Historic drought drops rivers to record lows.
- 2024
Renewed deforestation declines under new policies.
Next frontline
The American West on Fire